Silver Alpha Strategy
Systematic swing trade strategy — 2023 to Q1 2026 out-of-sample simulation.
Silver Alpha is a swing trade strategy built on Aerondight's multi-factor scoring engine. It uses conviction scores and signal transitions to systematically enter and exit positions in US equities. All decisions are fully systematic — no discretionary overrides.
Out-of-Sample Definition
The scoring models were trained on data through December 31, 2022, and fully locked as of that date. The Silver Alpha simulation runs from January 2023 through March 2026 — meaning every trade shown uses signals generated from a frozen model on data it had never seen during training. No hyperparameters, features, or weights were modified during the simulation window.
Performance
Equity Curve
Silver Alpha vs SPY buy-and-hold over the simulation period:
What's Not Shown
Portfolio simulation methodology. The equity curve reflects a 10-bucket portfolio: up to 10 concurrent positions, each bucket independently holds either a single stock or SPY. When a stock triggers a SELL signal, the bucket rotates into SPY; when a new BUY signal appears, the bucket sells SPY and buys the stock. This keeps capital fully deployed at all times and provides a clean benchmark-relative comparison.
Survivorship bias (partial). The ~900-name universe is composed of current S&P 500 and S&P 400 MidCap members, refreshed annually at year-end. Intra-year index changes are not reflected, meaning a stock added or removed mid-year could introduce minor survivorship effects. I've manually removed some of the most obvious cases, but the log still carries some residual bias. Future versions will use point-in-time index membership.
Fundamental data is point-in-time. All fundamental inputs to the scoring engine use as-of-record-date values — no look-ahead bias. A trade on 2024-03-15 only sees fundamentals filed before that date.
What's still not modeled: slippage, transaction costs, borrow costs for any short exposure, and realistic market-impact assumptions. The simulation reflects signal quality at execution, not a fully deployed portfolio's net returns.
Trade Log
Every trade is logged with full transparency. 94 completed trades from January 2023 through Q1 2026. Download CSV
| Symbol | Entry | Exit | Entry $ | Exit $ | Return % | SPY % | Excess % | Days | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 2023-01-06 | 2023-02-09 | $44.44 | $45.69 | 2.81% | 4.90% | -2.09% | 23 | Score deterioration |
| NUE | 2023-01-12 | 2023-03-15 | $149.05 | $138.62 | -7.00% | -1.93% | -5.07% | 42 | Score deterioration |
| STLD | 2023-01-13 | 2023-03-15 | $106.69 | $97.34 | -8.76% | -2.31% | -6.45% | 41 | Score deterioration |
| PR | 2023-01-13 | 2023-03-15 | $8.80 | $8.28 | -5.89% | -2.31% | -3.58% | 41 | Score deterioration |
| MPC | 2023-01-10 | 2023-05-02 | $108.59 | $109.67 | 0.99% | 5.59% | -4.60% | 77 | Score deterioration |
| UFPI | 2023-01-13 | 2023-05-05 | $83.40 | $78.46 | -5.92% | 3.94% | -9.87% | 77 | Stale (63d timer) |
| MPWR | 2023-02-10 | 2023-05-17 | $480.89 | $407.13 | -15.34% | 2.15% | -17.49% | 66 | Stale (63d timer) |
| LSTR | 2023-01-13 | 2023-06-06 | $159.32 | $172.20 | 8.09% | 7.82% | 0.27% | 98 | Stale (63d timer) |
| BLDR | 2023-01-13 | 2023-06-07 | $71.93 | $122.32 | 70.05% | 7.45% | 62.61% | 99 | Stale (63d timer) |
| EEFT | 2023-03-27 | 2023-06-28 | $109.59 | $114.64 | 4.61% | 10.47% | -5.86% | 64 | Stale (63d timer) |
| WSO | 2023-01-11 | 2023-06-29 | $253.82 | $351.74 | 38.58% | 11.60% | 26.98% | 116 | Stale (63d timer) |
| ADI | 2023-04-03 | 2023-08-07 | $186.55 | $181.54 | -2.68% | 10.08% | -12.77% | 86 | Score deterioration |
| ALGM | 2023-07-03 | 2023-08-17 | $45.23 | $37.39 | -17.33% | -1.69% | -15.64% | 32 | Score deterioration |
| APP | 2023-05-18 | 2023-08-22 | $25.08 | $39.48 | 57.42% | 4.90% | 52.51% | 65 | Stale (63d timer) |
| SMCI | 2023-05-08 | 2023-09-11 | $13.66 | $27.73 | 102.97% | 9.06% | 93.92% | 86 | Stale (63d timer) |
| LSCC | 2023-07-06 | 2023-09-20 | $91.76 | $84.61 | -7.79% | 0.12% | -7.91% | 53 | Score deterioration |
| BLD | 2023-01-12 | 2023-09-21 | $178.49 | $248.37 | 39.15% | 9.88% | 29.27% | 173 | Score deterioration |
| TKO | 2023-08-11 | 2023-09-21 | $105.82 | $84.56 | -20.09% | -2.86% | -17.23% | 28 | Score deterioration |
| NVR | 2023-06-08 | 2023-10-03 | $5806.16 | $5856.63 | 0.87% | -1.04% | 1.91% | 80 | Stale (63d timer) |
| PBF | 2023-09-22 | 2023-10-05 | $48.92 | $42.29 | -13.55% | -1.38% | -12.17% | 9 | Score deterioration |
| EXPE | 2023-09-12 | 2023-10-20 | $108.54 | $92.70 | -14.59% | -5.23% | -9.36% | 28 | Score deterioration |
| FN | 2023-08-24 | 2023-12-07 | $158.91 | $165.11 | 3.90% | 5.25% | -1.35% | 73 | Stale (63d timer) |
| TMHC | 2023-03-23 | 2023-12-14 | $36.64 | $52.42 | 43.07% | 20.92% | 22.14% | 184 | Stale (63d timer) |
| MCHP | 2023-05-05 | 2024-01-03 | $69.77 | $79.69 | 14.22% | 14.90% | -0.68% | 166 | Score deterioration |
| ABNB | 2023-12-15 | 2024-01-05 | $146.60 | $135.98 | -7.24% | -0.30% | -6.94% | 13 | Score deterioration |
| PHM | 2023-10-12 | 2024-01-10 | $70.57 | $103.45 | 46.59% | 10.34% | 36.26% | 61 | Score deterioration |
| CSCO | 2023-06-07 | 2024-02-20 | $46.06 | $45.69 | -0.81% | 17.78% | -18.59% | 176 | Score deterioration |
| DY | 2023-12-12 | 2024-03-19 | $109.78 | $140.85 | 28.30% | 11.92% | 16.38% | 66 | Stale (63d timer) |
| IDCC | 2023-08-24 | 2024-04-03 | $80.91 | $93.65 | 15.75% | 20.16% | -4.42% | 152 | Score deterioration |
| ANET | 2023-10-12 | 2024-04-19 | $48.25 | $61.52 | 27.50% | 15.00% | 12.50% | 130 | Score deterioration |
| IBM | 2024-01-22 | 2024-04-25 | $161.68 | $159.45 | -1.38% | 4.47% | -5.85% | 66 | Score deterioration |
| META | 2023-10-12 | 2024-04-29 | $321.64 | $429.71 | 33.60% | 18.46% | 15.14% | 136 | Score deterioration |
| APPF | 2024-01-17 | 2024-05-15 | $174.76 | $249.87 | 42.98% | 12.52% | 30.46% | 83 | Stale (63d timer) |
| WAB | 2024-04-26 | 2024-05-30 | $162.78 | $167.61 | 2.97% | 2.82% | 0.15% | 23 | Score deterioration |
| AMAT | 2024-01-22 | 2024-06-03 | $165.13 | $210.92 | 27.73% | 9.51% | 18.21% | 92 | Stale (63d timer) |
| KEX | 2024-04-26 | 2024-06-05 | $112.00 | $120.43 | 7.53% | 5.20% | 2.33% | 27 | Score deterioration |
| FIX | 2024-02-21 | 2024-06-07 | $240.06 | $302.97 | 26.20% | 7.74% | 18.47% | 75 | Stale (63d timer) |
| GDDY | 2024-03-21 | 2024-06-21 | $120.36 | $137.66 | 14.37% | 4.61% | 9.76% | 63 | Stale (63d timer) |
| TMUS | 2024-06-06 | 2024-07-24 | $174.96 | $172.16 | -1.60% | 1.56% | -3.16% | 32 | Score deterioration |
| FFIV | 2024-06-14 | 2024-07-24 | $167.58 | $170.44 | 1.71% | 0.04% | 1.67% | 26 | Score deterioration |
| PCAR | 2023-10-12 | 2024-07-25 | $76.87 | $91.69 | 19.28% | 25.45% | -6.17% | 196 | Score deterioration |
| WWD | 2024-05-01 | 2024-07-30 | $164.17 | $150.39 | -8.39% | 8.67% | -17.07% | 61 | Score deterioration |
| CAT | 2024-05-16 | 2024-08-02 | $342.01 | $314.18 | -8.14% | 1.12% | -9.26% | 53 | Score deterioration |
| NVDA | 2023-11-02 | 2024-08-05 | $43.48 | $100.40 | 130.94% | 21.36% | 109.58% | 188 | Score deterioration |
| HALO | 2024-06-11 | 2024-09-11 | $49.92 | $59.39 | 18.97% | 3.59% | 15.38% | 63 | Stale (63d timer) |
| FSLR | 2024-04-05 | 2024-09-13 | $174.60 | $228.79 | 31.04% | 8.76% | 22.28% | 111 | Stale (63d timer) |
| HIG | 2024-07-29 | 2024-09-26 | $106.91 | $113.61 | 6.27% | 5.38% | 0.89% | 42 | Score deterioration |
| GRMN | 2024-06-26 | 2024-10-02 | $156.79 | $168.07 | 7.20% | 4.60% | 2.60% | 68 | Stale (63d timer) |
| LVS | 2024-09-27 | 2024-10-16 | $49.59 | $50.14 | 1.10% | 1.90% | -0.80% | 13 | Score deterioration |
| ACGL | 2024-08-01 | 2024-11-01 | $92.33 | $91.31 | -1.11% | 5.48% | -6.60% | 65 | Score deterioration |
| POR | 2024-10-18 | 2024-11-05 | $45.16 | $43.59 | -3.47% | -1.35% | -2.12% | 12 | Score deterioration |
| LNTH | 2024-07-25 | 2024-11-06 | $112.95 | $91.17 | -19.28% | 10.11% | -29.39% | 73 | Score deterioration |
| PPC | 2024-08-07 | 2024-11-07 | $37.32 | $44.35 | 18.84% | 15.19% | 3.65% | 65 | Stale (63d timer) |
| EXEL | 2024-08-15 | 2024-11-13 | $26.31 | $35.19 | 33.75% | 8.31% | 25.44% | 63 | Stale (63d timer) |
| META | 2024-05-31 | 2024-11-21 | $463.69 | $560.39 | 20.85% | 13.28% | 7.57% | 121 | Stale (63d timer) |
| NXT | 2024-11-05 | 2024-11-21 | $44.09 | $37.40 | -15.17% | 2.94% | -18.12% | 12 | Score deterioration |
| EME | 2024-09-20 | 2024-12-26 | $434.24 | $465.38 | 7.17% | 6.18% | 0.99% | 67 | Stale (63d timer) |
| HAS | 2024-11-27 | 2024-12-31 | $61.02 | $53.40 | -12.49% | -1.80% | -10.69% | 22 | Score deterioration |
| AYI | 2024-10-03 | 2025-01-10 | $297.00 | $304.36 | 2.48% | 2.58% | -0.10% | 67 | Stale (63d timer) |
| NXT | 2025-01-17 | 2025-01-27 | $44.19 | $39.63 | -10.32% | 0.30% | -10.62% | 5 | Score deterioration |
| GM | 2024-12-30 | 2025-02-03 | $52.98 | $47.30 | -10.73% | 1.62% | -12.36% | 22 | Score deterioration |
| TOL | 2024-11-26 | 2025-02-07 | $162.46 | $123.29 | -24.11% | 0.36% | -24.47% | 48 | Score deterioration |
| AMZN | 2024-11-08 | 2025-02-24 | $208.18 | $212.71 | 2.18% | 0.17% | 2.00% | 70 | Score deterioration |
| UNM | 2024-11-07 | 2025-03-03 | $67.40 | $79.53 | 18.00% | -1.66% | 19.66% | 76 | Stale (63d timer) |
| CINF | 2024-11-07 | 2025-03-04 | $142.99 | $140.03 | -2.07% | -2.82% | 0.75% | 77 | Stale (63d timer) |
| ANF | 2024-09-16 | 2025-03-05 | $134.62 | $87.23 | -35.20% | 4.26% | -39.46% | 116 | Score deterioration |
| RL | 2025-01-07 | 2025-03-07 | $239.49 | $229.73 | -4.08% | -2.16% | -1.92% | 40 | Score deterioration |
| LULU | 2025-01-29 | 2025-03-11 | $411.16 | $319.42 | -22.31% | -7.63% | -14.69% | 28 | Score deterioration |
| EXPE | 2025-02-10 | 2025-03-11 | $200.94 | $162.43 | -19.17% | -8.09% | -11.08% | 20 | Score deterioration |
| APP | 2024-08-20 | 2025-03-13 | $86.58 | $272.00 | 214.16% | -0.67% | 214.83% | 140 | Score deterioration |
| TRV | 2025-02-27 | 2025-04-04 | $249.79 | $238.48 | -4.53% | -13.37% | 8.85% | 26 | Score deterioration |
| NYT | 2025-02-05 | 2025-04-07 | $48.61 | $45.46 | -6.49% | -16.27% | 9.79% | 42 | Score deterioration |
| FOXA | 2024-11-14 | 2025-04-08 | $46.81 | $47.00 | 0.42% | -15.79% | 16.21% | 97 | Score deterioration |
| NWE | 2025-04-04 | 2025-05-12 | $53.91 | $53.34 | -1.05% | 15.38% | -16.43% | 25 | Score deterioration |
| EXEL | 2025-03-04 | 2025-06-11 | $38.29 | $41.43 | 8.20% | 4.56% | 3.64% | 69 | Stale (63d timer) |
| VMI | 2025-05-06 | 2025-07-14 | $301.52 | $331.69 | 10.01% | 12.15% | -2.14% | 46 | Score deterioration |
| CRS | 2025-05-05 | 2025-07-30 | $211.45 | $283.00 | 33.84% | 12.93% | 20.91% | 59 | Score deterioration |
| FIX | 2025-05-05 | 2025-08-12 | $434.06 | $717.28 | 65.25% | 14.39% | 50.86% | 68 | Stale (63d timer) |
| STRL | 2025-05-06 | 2025-08-12 | $171.95 | $308.40 | 79.35% | 15.35% | 64.00% | 67 | Stale (63d timer) |
| EME | 2025-05-06 | 2025-08-13 | $432.46 | $616.11 | 42.47% | 15.75% | 26.72% | 68 | Stale (63d timer) |
| CR | 2025-05-05 | 2025-08-20 | $166.47 | $189.30 | 13.71% | 13.58% | 0.14% | 74 | Stale (63d timer) |
| FOXA | 2025-08-14 | 2025-10-10 | $59.32 | $56.99 | -3.93% | 1.53% | -5.47% | 40 | Score deterioration |
| FFIV | 2025-10-14 | 2025-11-13 | $343.17 | $238.87 | -30.39% | 1.48% | -31.87% | 22 | Score deterioration |
| QLYS | 2025-11-17 | 2025-12-16 | $139.46 | $143.57 | 2.95% | 1.98% | 0.96% | 20 | Score deterioration |
| NXT | 2025-05-13 | 2025-12-31 | $54.09 | $87.11 | 61.05% | 17.22% | 43.83% | 160 | Simulation end |
| MU | 2025-08-13 | 2025-12-31 | $124.14 | $285.41 | 129.91% | 6.35% | 123.56% | 97 | Simulation end |
| JKHY | 2025-08-22 | 2025-12-31 | $163.82 | $181.82 | 10.99% | 6.28% | 4.71% | 90 | Simulation end |
| RMBS | 2025-07-31 | 2025-12-31 | $73.93 | $91.89 | 24.29% | 8.50% | 15.79% | 106 | Simulation end |
| UTHR | 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-31 | $513.79 | $487.25 | -5.17% | -0.42% | -4.74% | 6 | Simulation end |
| STX | 2025-06-12 | 2025-12-31 | $124.68 | $275.39 | 120.87% | 13.93% | 106.94% | 139 | Simulation end |
| FOX | 2025-08-14 | 2025-12-31 | $54.01 | $64.58 | 19.56% | 6.34% | 13.23% | 96 | Simulation end |
| APH | 2025-07-21 | 2025-12-31 | $103.16 | $134.87 | 30.74% | 9.08% | 21.66% | 114 | Simulation end |
| NVDA | 2025-05-14 | 2025-12-31 | $135.31 | $186.49 | 37.83% | 17.07% | 20.76% | 159 | Simulation end |
| FSLR | 2025-05-14 | 2025-12-31 | $192.98 | $261.23 | 35.37% | 17.07% | 18.30% | 159 | Simulation end |